Leonard Evans is with the Science Serving Society, Bloomfield Hills, MI.
Am J Public Health. 2014 Aug;104(8):1501-7. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.301922. Epub 2014 Jun 12.
I compared US traffic fatality trends with those in 25 other countries.
I have introduced a new measure for comparing safety in different countries: traffic deaths in a specific year relative to largest annual number recorded. I used only data from the International Road Traffic Accident Database.
The United States is a unique outlier. Fatalities in all 25 other countries declined further after reaching their maximum values. For example, the United States and the Netherlands both reached maximum values in 1972. From 1972 to 2011 US deaths declined by 41%, whereas those in the Netherlands declined by 81%. If US fatalities had declined by 81% there would have been 22 000 fewer US road deaths in 2011. If the United States matched percentage declines of 6 additional countries, US deaths would have declined by more than 20 000.
If US traffic deaths had declined by the same percentage as in any 1 of 7 other countries, more than 20 000 fewer Americans would have been killed in 2011.
我比较了美国和其他 25 个国家的交通死亡率趋势。
我引入了一个新的衡量不同国家交通安全的指标：特定年份的交通死亡人数与记录到的最大年死亡人数之比。我只使用了国际道路交通事故数据库的数据。
美国是一个独特的异常值。除美国以外的 25 个其他国家的交通死亡率在达到最大值后进一步下降。例如，美国和荷兰都在 1972 年达到了最大值。从 1972 年到 2011 年，美国的死亡人数下降了 41%，而荷兰的死亡人数下降了 81%。如果美国的死亡率下降了 81%，那么 2011 年美国的道路死亡人数将会减少 22000 人。如果美国的死亡率下降幅度与其他 6 个国家相同，那么美国的死亡人数将会下降 20000 多人。
如果美国的交通死亡人数下降的百分比与其他 7 个国家中的任何一个相同，那么 2011 年就会有超过 20000 名美国人免于死亡。
