Tampubolon Gindo
a Institute for Social Change , University of Manchester , Manchester , UK.
Aging Ment Health. 2015 Jul;19(7):576-83. doi: 10.1080/13607863.2014.1003279. Epub 2015 Feb 2.
In the public mind, later life is being transformed by the emerging possibility of a flourishing third age with sustained quality of life. We draw trajectories of life quality measured using CASP-19 over eight years. We refine these trajectories by jointly modelling attrition, since older people tend to leave longitudinal studies (attrite) not at random.
Growth curve models are applied to the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing waves 1 to 5. Then joint model is estimated where attrition is considered. Extensive predictors are entered including demographic attributes, social and economic status, health conditions, and behaviours.
Strong non-linear age trajectory of life quality is revealed by the growth curve models where the peak is achieved in the late 60s. Then the joint model uncovers the peak somewhat later in time, and also reveals secular improvement in life quality experienced by recent cohorts. Sharp estimates for many predictors of higher levels of life quality are also found.
For the first time, the trajectories of life quality in the third age are drawn and improvement across cohorts is demonstrated. The contributions are estimated for predictors amenable to intervention such as social capital. This can help in policy discussion on improving the lives of older people in the third age.
在公众认知中，随着蓬勃发展的第三年龄阶段以及持续生活质量的出现可能性，晚年生活正在发生转变。我们绘制了使用CASP - 19测量的八年生活质量轨迹。由于老年人倾向于非随机地退出纵向研究（失访），我们通过联合建模失访情况来优化这些轨迹。
将生长曲线模型应用于英国老龄化纵向研究的第1至5轮数据。然后估计考虑失访情况的联合模型。纳入了广泛的预测因素，包括人口统计学特征、社会经济地位、健康状况和行为。
生长曲线模型揭示了生活质量强烈的非线性年龄轨迹，在60年代后期达到峰值。联合模型则发现峰值出现时间稍晚，并且还揭示了近期队列所经历的生活质量的长期改善。还发现了许多与较高生活质量水平相关预测因素的精确估计值。
首次绘制了第三年龄阶段的生活质量轨迹，并展示了不同队列间的改善情况。对诸如社会资本等可通过干预改善的预测因素的作用进行了评估。这有助于在关于改善第三年龄阶段老年人生活的政策讨论中提供参考。
