Key Laboratory of Industrial Ecology and Environmental Engineering (MOE), School of Environmental Science and Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, PR China.
Key Laboratory of Industrial Ecology and Environmental Engineering (MOE), School of Environmental Science and Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Jan 15;577:289-298. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.184. Epub 2016 Oct 29.
Dietary change presents an opportunity to meet the dual challenges of non-communicable diseases and the effects of climate change in China. Based on a food survey and reviewed data sets, we linked nutrient composition and carbon footprint data by aggregating 1950 types of foods into 28 groups. Nine dietary scenarios for both men and women were modeled based on the current diet and latest National Program for Food and Nutrition. Linear uncertainty optimization was used to produce diets meeting the Chinese Dietary Reference Intakes for adults aged 18-50years while minimizing carbon footprints. The theoretical optimal diet reduced daily footprints by 46%, but this diet was unrealistic due to limited food diversity. Constrained by acceptability, the optimal diet reduced the daily carbon footprints by 7-28%, from 3495 to 2517-3252g COe, for men and by 5-26%, from 3075 to 2280-2917g COe, for women. Dietary changes for adults are capable of benefiting China in terms of the considerable footprint reduction of 53-222Mt.COeyear, when magnified based on the Chinese population, which is the largest worldwide. Seven of eight scenarios showed that reductions in meat consumption resulted in greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, dramatic reductions in meat consumption may produce smaller reductions in emissions, as the consumption of other ingredients increases to compensate for the nutrients in meat. A trade-off between poultry and other meats (beef, pork, and lamb) is usually observed, and rice, which is a popular food in China, was the largest contributor to carbon footprint reductions. Our findings suggest that changing diets for climate change mitigation and human health is possible in China, though the per capital mitigation potential is slight lower than that in developed economies of France, Spain, Sweden, and New Zealand.
饮食结构的改变为中国应对非传染性疾病和气候变化影响带来了双重挑战。我们基于食物调查和已审查数据集，通过将 1950 种食物聚合到 28 组，将营养成分和碳足迹数据联系起来。基于当前饮食和最新的《国家食物与营养发展纲要》，我们为男性和女性分别构建了 9 种饮食情景。我们采用线性不确定性优化方法，生成了满足中国 18-50 岁成年人膳食参考摄入量，同时又将碳足迹最小化的饮食方案。理论上最优的饮食方案可使每日碳足迹减少 46%，但由于食物种类有限，这种饮食方案不切实际。在可接受性的约束下，最优饮食方案使男性的每日碳足迹减少 7-28%，从 3495 克 COe 减少到 2517-3252 克 COe；使女性的每日碳足迹减少 5-26%，从 3075 克 COe 减少到 2280-2917 克 COe。基于中国庞大的人口基数，对其进行放大，这些变化将使中国的足迹减少 53-222Mt.COe/年，这对中国来说是相当可观的。八个情景中有七个表明，减少肉类消费会导致温室气体排放的更大减少。然而，由于其他成分的消费增加以弥补肉类中的营养成分，大幅减少肉类消费可能会导致排放量减少幅度较小。禽肉和其他肉类（牛肉、猪肉和羊肉）之间通常存在此消彼长的关系，而大米作为中国的一种主食，是减少碳足迹的最大贡献者。我们的研究结果表明，中国有可能通过改变饮食结构来应对气候变化和人类健康问题，尽管人均减排潜力略低于法国、西班牙、瑞典和新西兰等发达经济体。
