Department of Evolutionary Theory, Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Biology, August-Thienemann-Straße 2, 24306, Plön, Germany.
Donnelly Centre for Cellular and Biomolecular Research, University of Toronto, 160 College Street, Toronto, QC, M5S 3E1, Canada.
Nat Commun. 2018 Jul 2;9(1):2566. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-04968-1.
Mitigating the detrimental effects of climate change is a collective problem that requires global cooperation. However, achieving cooperation is difficult since benefits are obtained in the future. The so-called collective-risk game, devised to capture dangerous climate change, showed that catastrophic economic losses promote cooperation when individuals know the timing of a single climatic event. In reality, the impact and timing of climate change is not certain; moreover, recurrent events are possible. Thus, we devise a game where the risk of a collective loss can recur across multiple rounds. We find that wait and see behavior is successful only if players know when they need to contribute to avoid danger and if contributions can eliminate the risks. In all other cases, act quickly is more successful, especially under uncertainty and the possibility of repeated losses. Furthermore, we incorporate influential factors such as wealth inequality and heterogeneity in risks. Even under inequality individuals should contribute early, as long as contributions have the potential to decrease risk. Most importantly, we find that catastrophic scenarios are not necessary to induce such immediate collective action.
减轻气候变化的不利影响是一个需要全球合作的集体问题。然而,由于未来才能获得收益,实现合作是困难的。所谓的集体风险博弈,旨在捕捉危险的气候变化,表明当个人知道单一气候事件的时间时,灾难性的经济损失会促进合作。在现实中,气候变化的影响和时间并不确定;此外,还可能发生反复事件。因此,我们设计了一个游戏,其中集体损失的风险可以在多轮中重复出现。我们发现,只有当玩家知道何时需要做出贡献以避免危险,并且贡献可以消除风险时,观望行为才会成功。在所有其他情况下,迅速采取行动更为成功,尤其是在存在不确定性和反复损失的情况下。此外,我们还考虑了财富不平等和风险异质性等影响因素。只要贡献有可能降低风险,即使存在不平等,个人也应该尽早做出贡献。最重要的是,我们发现没有必要出现灾难性的情况来促使这种即时的集体行动。