Department of Public Health, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2020 Aug 24;22(9):1453-1459. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntz108.
Since 2012, England has an annual "Stoptober" campaign for collective smoking cessation. Our aim was to assess (1) overall impact of the Stoptober campaign on quit attempts over its first 6 years, (2) consistency of impact over the campaign years, and (3) the role of the campaign budget.
We used data of 51 399 adult smokers and ex-smokers in 132 repeat cross-sectional monthly surveys in England, 2007-2017. In a quasiexperimental design, adjusted logistic regression analyses compared past-month quit attempt rate between (1) October and other months in the year, between 2007-2011 and 2012-2017; (2) October and other months, across years 2012-2017; and (3) October and other months, between high-budget (2012-2015) and low-budget Stoptober campaigns (2016-2017). Bayes factors (BF) differentiated insensitive data and absence of an effect.
(1) In 2012-2017, quit attempts were more prevalent in October versus other months (odds ratio [OR]: 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00 to 1.53), whereas similar in 2007-2011 (OR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.18; BF = 0.2); data were somewhat insensitive but supported this difference (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 0.97 to 1.75; BF = 2.1). (2) In 2012-2017, quit attempt prevalence ranged from 3.1% to 8.5% in October and 5.0% to 7.3% in other months. The difference between October and other months was large in 2012 (absolute unadjusted difference of 3.3%; OR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.23 to 2.98) and 2015 (3.1%; OR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.14 to 2.95), but small in 2013-2014 and 2016-2017 (0.36 < BF < 1.02). (3) Data were somewhat insensitive but supported interaction with campaign budget (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 0.92 to 2.44; BF = 2.2).
In 2012-2017, there appears to have been an increase in past-month quit attempts during October in England. The increase was inconsistent across Stoptober campaigns and appears to have been greater when the campaign budget was higher.
Over the first 6 years of Stoptober campaigns, there appears to have been an overall increase in past-month quit attempts during October in England, and the data imply that a sufficiently high budget contributes to greater impact of the Stoptober campaign. These findings encourage the further spread of the Stoptober campaign to other countries. Future research should clarify how increased quit attempts as a consequence of Stoptober translate into quit success and which of Stoptober's ingredients were most important in increasing quit attempts, especially among vulnerable groups.
自 2012 年以来，英国每年都会举办“停止十月”戒烟活动。我们的目的是评估：（1）在其首个 6 年期间，“停止十月”活动对戒烟尝试的总体影响；（2）活动期间影响的一致性；（3）活动预算的作用。
我们使用了 2007 年至 2017 年在英格兰进行的 132 次重复月度横断面调查中 51399 名成年吸烟者和戒烟者的数据。在准实验设计中，我们比较了 2012-2017 年（1）10 月与一年中其他月份、2007-2011 年与 2012-2017 年期间过去一个月的戒烟尝试率；（2）2012-2017 年 10 月与其他月份的戒烟尝试率；（3）2012-2015 年高预算（2012-2015 年）和 2016-2017 年低预算“停止十月”活动（2016-2017 年）期间 10 月与其他月份的戒烟尝试率。贝叶斯因子（BF）区分了不敏感的数据和无效应。
（1）在 2012-2017 年期间，10 月的戒烟尝试率高于其他月份（优势比 [OR]：1.24，95%置信区间 [CI]：1.00 至 1.53），而在 2007-2011 年期间则相似（OR：0.95，95% CI：0.76 至 1.18；BF = 0.2）；数据有些不敏感，但支持这种差异（OR：1.30，95% CI：0.97 至 1.75；BF = 2.1）。（2）在 2012-2017 年期间，10 月的戒烟尝试率范围为 3.1%至 8.5%，其他月份为 5.0%至 7.3%。2012 年和 2015 年 10 月与其他月份之间的差异较大（未调整的绝对差异分别为 3.3%和 3.1%；OR：1.92，95% CI：1.23 至 2.98；OR：1.84，95% CI：1.14 至 2.95），但在 2013-2014 年和 2016-2017 年较小（0.36 < BF < 1.02）。（3）数据有些不敏感，但支持与活动预算的交互作用（OR：1.50，95% CI：0.92 至 2.44；BF = 2.2）。
在 2012-2017 年期间，英国 10 月的戒烟尝试率似乎有所增加。这种增加在不同的“停止十月”活动中并不一致，并且似乎在活动预算较高时更大。
在“停止十月”活动的前 6 年中，英国 10 月的戒烟尝试率似乎有所增加，而且数据表明，足够高的预算有助于提高“停止十月”活动的效果。这些发现鼓励在其他国家进一步推广“停止十月”活动。未来的研究应该阐明由于“停止十月”活动而增加的戒烟尝试如何转化为戒烟成功，以及“停止十月”活动的哪些成分对于增加戒烟尝试最重要，尤其是对于弱势群体。
