中国广东省通过活猪市场进行的猪贸易网络。

Pig trade networks through live pig markets in Guangdong Province, China.

机构信息

School of Veterinary Medicine, Murdoch University, Perth, WA, Australia.

China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, China.

出版信息

Transbound Emerg Dis. 2020 May;67(3):1315-1329. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13472. Epub 2020 Jan 13.

Abstract

This study used social network analysis to investigate the indirect contact network between counties through the movement of live pigs through four wholesale live pig markets in Guangdong Province, China. All 14,118 trade records for January and June 2016 were collected from the markets and the patterns of pig trade in these markets analysed. Maps were developed to show the movement pathways. Evaluating the network between source counties was the primary objective of this study. A 1-mode network was developed. Characteristics of the trading network were explored, and the degree, betweenness and closeness were calculated for each source county. Models were developed to compare the impacts of different disease control strategies on the potential magnitude of an epidemic spreading through this network. The results show that pigs from 151 counties were delivered to the four wholesale live pig markets in January and/or June 2016. More batches (truckloads of pigs sourced from one or more piggeries) were traded in these markets in January (8,001) than in June 2016 (6,117). The pigs were predominantly sourced from counties inside Guangdong Province (90%), along with counties in Hunan, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Fujian and Henan provinces. The major source counties (46 in total) contributed 94% of the total batches during the two-month study period. Pigs were sourced from piggeries located 10 to 1,417 km from the markets. The distribution of the nodes' degrees in both January and June indicates a free-scale network property, and the network in January had a higher clustering coefficient (0.54 vs. 0.39) and a shorter average pathway length (1.91 vs. 2.06) than that in June. The most connected counties of the network were in the central, northern and western regions of Guangdong Province. Compared with randomly removing counties from the network, eliminating counties with higher betweenness, degree or closeness resulted in a greater reduction of the magnitude of a potential epidemic. The findings of this study can be used to inform targeted control interventions for disease spread through this live pig market trade network in south China.

摘要

本研究使用社会网络分析方法,通过中国广东省的四个批发生猪市场,调查了生猪流通导致的县与县之间的间接接触网络。收集了 2016 年 1 月和 6 月来自四个市场的所有 14,118 笔贸易记录,并分析了这些市场的生猪交易模式。制作了地图以展示生猪的流动路径。本研究的主要目的是评估源县区之间的网络。建立了一个 1 模式网络。探索了交易网络的特征,并计算了每个源县区的度数、中间中心度和接近中心度。还建立了模型,以比较不同疾病控制策略对通过该网络传播的潜在疫情规模的影响。结果表明,2016 年 1 月和 6 月,共有 151 个县的生猪被运送到四个批发生猪市场。1 月份(8001 批)交易的批次(同一或多个养猪场供应的猪)多于 6 月份(6117 批)。这些猪主要来自广东省内的县(90%),以及湖南、广西、江西、福建和河南省的县。在为期两个月的研究期间,主要来源县(共计 46 个)贡献了总批次的 94%。从距离市场 10 至 1417 公里的养猪场采购生猪。1 月和 6 月节点度数的分布表明网络具有无标度网络特性,且 1 月网络的聚类系数(0.54 比 0.39)和平均路径长度(1.91 比 2.06)均高于 6 月网络。网络中连接度最高的县位于广东省的中部、北部和西部地区。与随机删除网络中的县区相比,消除具有较高中间中心度、度数或接近中心度的县区,可显著降低潜在疫情的规模。本研究结果可用于为中国南方通过该生猪市场贸易网络传播疾病的针对性控制干预措施提供信息。

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