CAS Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
Virol Sin. 2020 Jun;35(3):272-279. doi: 10.1007/s12250-020-00219-0. Epub 2020 Apr 1.
Human beings have experienced a serious public health event as the new pneumonia (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus has killed more than 3000 people in China, most of them elderly or people with underlying chronic diseases or immunosuppressed states. Rapid assessment and early warning are essential for outbreak analysis in response to serious public health events. This paper reviews the current model analysis methods and conclusions from both micro and macro perspectives. The establishment of a comprehensive assessment model, and the use of model analysis prediction, is very efficient for the early warning of infectious diseases. This would significantly improve global surveillance capacity, particularly in developing regions, and improve basic training in infectious diseases and molecular epidemiology.
人类经历了一场严重的公共卫生事件，新型肺炎（COVID-19）是由严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒引起的，在中国已导致 3000 多人死亡，其中大多数是老年人或患有慢性基础疾病或免疫抑制状态的人。快速评估和早期预警对于应对严重公共卫生事件的疫情分析至关重要。本文从微观和宏观两个角度综述了当前的模型分析方法和结论。建立全面评估模型，并利用模型分析预测，对于传染病的早期预警非常有效。这将极大地提高全球监测能力，特别是在发展中地区，并改善传染病和分子流行病学的基础培训。
