Gavrilova Natalia S, Gavrilov Leonid A
University of Chicago, 60637, USA; Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 127254, Russia; Institute of Socio-Political Research at the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, 119333, Russia.
Popul Econ. 2020;4(2):56-64. doi: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53492. Epub 2020 Apr 30.
Now the attention of the whole world is focused on the developing pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. This article discusses mortality patterns of the deadliest epidemic in the last 120 years - the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Statistical sources from Italy and the USA, published shortly after the pandemic, were analyzed. The analysis was carried out for mortality from all causes, since in this case inaccuracies associated with establishing the causes of death are minimized. Despite the fact that the first cases of the Spanish flu appeared in the United States as early as March 1918, this first wave of epidemic practically did not affect the total mortality rate. The main peak of mortality in 1918 occurred in October 1918 both in the USA and Italy, with a gradual decrease in mortality over several months. Analysis of age-specific mortality demonstrates a significant increase in mortality at middle ages (20-50 years) in 1918 compared with 1917. Analysis of mortality trends using the method of latent variables shows a significant increase in the background mortality factor in 1918, which turned out to be higher for Italy than the mortality losses during the Second World War. The Spanish flu pandemic differs from the current coronavirus pandemic, because of significant increase in mortality of middle-aged people, while the COVID-19 pandemic causes a more marked increase in mortality among the elderly. With this, the COVID-19 pandemic is more like the recent flu epidemics than the earlier Spanish flu pandemic.
如今，全世界的目光都聚焦在不断发展的新型冠状病毒感染 COVID-19 大流行上。本文讨论了过去 120 年中最致命的疫情——1918 年西班牙流感大流行的死亡模式。分析了大流行后不久发表的来自意大利和美国的统计资料。对所有原因导致的死亡率进行了分析，因为在这种情况下，与确定死亡原因相关的不准确之处被最小化了。尽管早在 1918 年 3 月美国就出现了西班牙流感的首例病例，但这第一波疫情实际上并未影响总死亡率。1918 年死亡率的主要峰值出现在 1918 年 10 月，在美国和意大利都是如此，随后几个月死亡率逐渐下降。按年龄分析死亡率表明，与 1917 年相比，1918 年中年（20 - 50 岁）人群的死亡率显著上升。使用潜在变量方法分析死亡率趋势表明，1918 年背景死亡率因素显著增加，结果显示意大利的这一因素高于第二次世界大战期间的死亡损失。西班牙流感大流行与当前的冠状病毒大流行不同，因为中年人的死亡率显著上升，而 COVID - 19 大流行导致老年人的死亡率上升更为明显。就此而言，COVID - 19 大流行比早期的西班牙流感大流行更类似于近期的流感疫情。
