Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Contemporary Anthropology, Human Phenome Institute, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Institute for Six-sector Economy, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
J Investig Med. 2021 Jan;69(1):52-55. doi: 10.1136/jim-2020-001491. Epub 2020 Oct 6.
COVID-19 raised tension both within China and internationally. Here, we used mathematical modeling to predict the trend of patient diagnosis outside China in future, with the aim of easing anxiety regarding the emergent situation. According to all diagnosis number from WHO website and combining with the transmission mode of infectious diseases, the mathematical model was fitted to predict future trend of outbreak. Daily diagnosis numbers from countries outside China were downloaded from WHO situation reports. The data used for this analysis were collected from January 21, 2020 and currently end at February 28, 2020. A simple regression model was developed based on these numbers, as follows: [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is the total diagnosed patient till the i-th day and t=1 at February 1, 2020. Based on this model, we estimate that there were approximately 34 undetected founder patients at the beginning of the spread of COVID-19 outside China. The global trend was approximately exponential, with an increase rate of 10-fold every 19 days. Through establishment of this model, we call for worldwide strong public health actions, with reference to the experiences learned from China and Singapore.
新冠疫情在中国境内外都引起了紧张局势。在这里，我们使用数学模型来预测未来中国境外的患者诊断趋势，旨在缓解对紧急情况的焦虑。根据世界卫生组织网站上的所有诊断数量，并结合传染病的传播模式，对数学模型进行了拟合，以预测疫情的未来趋势。从世界卫生组织的情况报告中下载了中国境外国家的每日诊断数量。本分析中使用的数据收集于 2020 年 1 月 21 日，截止到 2020 年 2 月 28 日。根据这些数字建立了一个简单的回归模型，如下所示：[公式：见正文]，其中[公式：见正文]是第 i 天之前累计诊断的患者总数，t=1 为 2020 年 2 月 1 日。根据该模型，我们估计在中国境外 COVID-19 传播初期，大约有 34 名未被发现的初始患者。全球趋势大致呈指数增长，每 19 天增加 10 倍。通过建立这个模型，我们呼吁全世界采取强有力的公共卫生措施，借鉴中国和新加坡的经验。
