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新型冠状病毒病预测的随机模型分析

Analysis of the stochastic model for predicting the novel coronavirus disease.

作者信息

Sene Ndolane

机构信息

Laboratoire Lmdan, Département de Mathématiques de la Décision, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et Gestion, Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, BP 5683 Dakar Fann, Senegal.

出版信息

Adv Differ Equ. 2020;2020(1):568. doi: 10.1186/s13662-020-03025-w. Epub 2020 Oct 8.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to predict the novel coronavirus. Due to the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus disease in the world, we add to the deterministic model of the coronavirus the terms of the stochastic perturbations. In other words, we consider in this paper a stochastic model to predict the novel coronavirus. The equilibrium points of the deterministic model have been determined, and the reproduction number of our deterministic model has been implemented. The asymptotic behaviors of the solutions of the stochastic model around the equilibrium points have been studied. The numerical investigations and the graphical representations obtained with the novel stochastic model are made using the classical stochastic numerical scheme.

摘要

在本文中,我们提出了一个用于预测新型冠状病毒的数学模型。由于新型冠状病毒病在全球的迅速传播,我们在冠状病毒的确定性模型中加入了随机扰动项。换句话说,我们在本文中考虑用一个随机模型来预测新型冠状病毒。已经确定了确定性模型的平衡点,并计算了我们确定性模型的再生数。研究了随机模型的解在平衡点附近的渐近行为。使用经典的随机数值格式对新的随机模型进行了数值研究和图形表示。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f943/7543041/68b693fe7532/13662_2020_3025_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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