UHasselt, Data Science Institute and I-BioStat, Hasselt, 3500, Belgium.
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E, UK.
Sci Rep. 2020 Dec 14;10(1):21885. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-78540-7.
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how a newly emergent communicable disease can lay considerable burden on public health. To avoid system collapse, governments have resorted to several social distancing measures. In Belgium, this included a lockdown and a following period of phased re-opening. A representative sample of Belgian adults was asked about their contact behaviour from mid-April to the beginning of August, during different stages of the intervention measures in Belgium. Use of personal protection equipment (face masks) and compliance to hygienic measures was also reported. We estimated the expected reproduction number computing the ratio of [Formula: see text] with respect to pre-pandemic data. During the first two waves (the first month) of the survey, the reduction in the average number of contacts was around 80% and was quite consistent across all age-classes. The average number of contacts increased over time, particularly for the younger age classes, still remaining significantly lower than pre-pandemic values. From the end of May to the end of July , the estimated reproduction number has a median value larger than one, although with a wide dispersion. Estimated [Formula: see text] fell below one again at the beginning of August. We have shown how a rapidly deployed survey can measure compliance to social distancing and assess its impact on COVID-19 spread. Monitoring the effectiveness of social distancing recommendations is of paramount importance to avoid further waves of COVID-19.
新冠疫情表明,新出现的传染病会给公共卫生带来巨大负担。为避免系统崩溃,各国政府采取了多种社交隔离措施。在比利时,这包括封锁和随后的分阶段重新开放。在比利时干预措施的不同阶段,对代表性的比利时成年人样本进行了接触行为调查,调查时间为 4 月中旬至 8 月初。还报告了个人防护设备(口罩)的使用情况和遵守卫生措施的情况。我们通过计算 [Formula: see text]与大流行前数据的比值来估计预期繁殖数。在调查的前两个波(第一个月)中,平均接触次数减少了约 80%,并且在所有年龄组中都相当一致。随着时间的推移,平均接触次数增加,尤其是在年轻年龄组中,但仍显著低于大流行前的值。从 5 月底到 7 月底,估计的繁殖数的中位数大于 1,尽管分布很广。8 月初,估计的 [Formula: see text]再次降至 1 以下。我们展示了如何快速部署调查来衡量对社交隔离的遵守情况,并评估其对 COVID-19 传播的影响。监测社交距离建议的有效性对于避免 COVID-19 的进一步传播至关重要。