Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
BMJ Glob Health. 2020 Dec;5(12). doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003047.
To generate rankings of 35 countries from all continents (except Africa) on performance against COVID-19.
International time series, cross-sectional analysis.
Countries having 5500 or more cases (collectively including 85% of the world's cases) as of 16 April 2020 and that had reached 135 days into their pandemic by 30 July.
The and performance of countries can reasonably be ranked by COVID-19 cases or deaths per million population. For guiding policy and informing public accountability during the pandemic, we propose performance rankings based on doubling time in days of the total number of cases and deaths in a country. Rank orderings then follow.
At day 25 into a country's pandemic, cross-country performance variation was modest: in most countries, cumulative deaths doubled in fewer than 5 days. By day 65, and even more so by day 135, great cross-country variation emerged. By day 135, 9 of the 10 top-performing countries on deaths were European, although they were initially hard hit by the pandemic. Thus, rankings change rapidly enough to point to the value of a dynamic indicator. Five countries-Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia and Israel-were among the seven poorest performers at day 135 on both cases and deaths. Doubling times for cases and for deaths are positively correlated, but differ sufficiently to point to the value of both indicators.
Readily available data support transparently generated rankings of countries' performance against COVID-19 based on doubling times of cases and deaths. It is premature to judge the value of these rankings in practice, but the potential and early experience suggest they might help facilitate identification of good policies and inform judgements on national leadership.
对除非洲以外各大洲的 35 个国家在应对 COVID-19 方面的表现进行排名。
国际时间序列、横断面分析。
截至 2020 年 4 月 16 日，病例数达到 5500 例或以上（合计占全球病例的 85%），且截至 7 月 30 日已进入大流行第 135 天的国家。
可根据 COVID-19 每百万人口的病例数或死亡数对国家的表现进行合理排名。为了在大流行期间指导政策制定和提供公共问责，我们提出了基于病例和死亡总数翻倍天数的表现排名。然后按照排名顺序进行排序。
在大流行的第 25 天，各国之间的表现差异较小：在大多数国家，累计死亡数在不到 5 天内翻了一番。到第 65 天，尤其是第 135 天，国家之间的差异就变得很大。到第 135 天，在死亡人数方面排名前 10 的国家中有 9 个是欧洲国家，尽管它们最初受到疫情的严重打击。因此，排名变化迅速，足以说明动态指标的价值。在病例和死亡方面，巴西、墨西哥、印度、印度尼西亚和以色列这 5 个国家在第 135 天的表现都排在倒数 7 位。病例和死亡的翻倍时间呈正相关，但差异足以说明这两个指标都具有价值。
现成的数据支持根据病例和死亡翻倍时间，对各国应对 COVID-19 的表现进行透明的排名。目前判断这些排名的实际价值还为时过早，但潜力和早期经验表明，它们可能有助于识别良好的政策，并为国家领导能力的判断提供信息。
