Selvakumar K, Lokesh S
Department of Science and Humanities, Anna University, Chennai, India.
University College of Engineering, Nagercoil, Tamil Nadu 629004 India.
Soft comput. 2021;25(16):10575-10594. doi: 10.1007/s00500-021-05643-2. Epub 2021 Mar 10.
The World Health Organization (WHO) on December 31, 2019, was informed of several cases of respiratory diseases of unknown origin in the city of Wuhan in the Chinese Province of Hubei, the clinical manifestations of which were similar to those of viral pneumonia and manifested as fever, cough, and shortness of breath. And, the disease caused by the virus is named the new coronavirus disease 2019 and it will be abbreviated as 2019-nCoV and COVID-19. As of January 30, 2020, the WHO classified this epidemic as a global health emergency (Chung et al. in Radiology 295(1):202-207, 2020). It is an international real-life problem. Due to deaths, globally everyone is under fear. Now, it is the responsibility of researchers to give hope to the people. In this article, we aim to better protect people and general pandemic preparedness by predicting the lifetime of the disease-causing virus using three mathematical models. This article deals with a complex real-life problem people face all over the world, an international real-life problem. The main focus is on the USA due to large infection and death due to coronavirus and thereby the life of every individual is uncertain. The death counts of the USA from February 29 to April 22, 2020, are used in this article as a data set. The death counts of the USA are fitted by the solutions of three mathematical models and a solution to an international problem is achieved. Based on the death rate, the lifetime of the coronavirus COVID-19 is predicted as 1464.76 days from February 29, 2020. That is, after March 2024 there will be no death in the USA due to COVID-19 if everyone follows the guidelines of WHO and the advice of healthcare workers. People and government can get prepared for this situation and many lives can be saved. It is the contribution of soft computing. Finally, this article suggests several steps to control the spread and severity of the disease. The research work, the lifetime prediction presented in this article is entirely new and differs from all other articles in the literature.
2019年12月31日,世界卫生组织(WHO)获悉中国湖北省武汉市出现几例不明原因的呼吸道疾病,其临床表现与病毒性肺炎相似,症状为发热、咳嗽和呼吸急促。这种由病毒引起的疾病被命名为2019新型冠状病毒病,简称为2019 - nCoV和COVID - 19。截至2020年1月30日,WHO将此次疫情列为全球卫生突发事件(Chung等人,《放射学》295(1):202 - 207,2020)。这是一个国际性的现实问题。由于出现死亡病例,全球每个人都处于恐惧之中。现在,研究人员有责任给人们带来希望。在本文中,我们旨在通过使用三种数学模型预测致病病毒的存活时间,以更好地保护人们并做好应对大流行的准备。本文探讨了一个世界各地人们都面临的复杂现实问题,一个国际性的现实问题。由于冠状病毒导致大量感染和死亡,美国的情况备受关注,因此每个人的生命都充满不确定性。本文使用2020年2月29日至4月22日美国的死亡人数作为数据集。美国的死亡人数通过三种数学模型的解进行拟合,从而得出一个国际性问题的解决方案。根据死亡率,预计从2020年2月29日起,COVID - 19冠状病毒的存活时间为1464.76天。也就是说,如果每个人都遵循WHO的指导方针和医护人员的建议,到2024年3月之后美国将不会再有因COVID - 19导致的死亡病例。人们和政府可以为此做好准备,许多生命可以得到挽救。这是软计算的贡献。最后,本文提出了控制疾病传播和严重程度的几个步骤。本文所呈现的关于存活时间预测的研究工作是全新的,与文献中的所有其他文章都不同。