Jahn Beate, Sroczynski Gaby, Bicher Martin, Rippinger Claire, Mühlberger Nikolai, Santamaria Júlia, Urach Christoph, Schomaker Michael, Stojkov Igor, Schmid Daniela, Weiss Günter, Wiedermann Ursula, Redlberger-Fritz Monika, Druml Christiane, Kretzschmar Mirjam, Paulke-Korinek Maria, Ostermann Herwig, Czasch Caroline, Endel Gottfried, Bock Wolfgang, Popper Nikolas, Siebert Uwe
Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria.
dwh GmbH, dwh Simulation Services, Neustiftgasse 57-59, A-1070 Vienna, Austria.
Vaccines (Basel). 2021 Apr 27;9(5):434. doi: 10.3390/vaccines9050434.
(1) Background: The Austrian supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited for now. We aim to provide evidence-based guidance to the authorities in order to minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths in Austria. (2) Methods: We used a dynamic agent-based population model to compare different vaccination strategies targeted to the elderly (65 ≥ years), middle aged (45-64 years), younger (15-44 years), vulnerable (risk of severe disease due to comorbidities), and healthcare workers (HCW). First, outcomes were optimized for an initially available vaccine batch for 200,000 individuals. Second, stepwise optimization was performed deriving a prioritization sequence for 2.45 million individuals, maximizing the reduction in total hospitalizations and deaths compared to no vaccination. We considered sterilizing and non-sterilizing immunity, assuming a 70% effectiveness. (3) Results: Maximum reduction of hospitalizations and deaths was achieved by starting vaccination with the elderly and vulnerable followed by middle-aged, HCW, and younger individuals. Optimizations for vaccinating 2.45 million individuals yielded the same prioritization and avoided approximately one third of deaths and hospitalizations. Starting vaccination with HCW leads to slightly smaller reductions but maximizes occupational safety. (4) Conclusion: To minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, our study shows that elderly and vulnerable persons should be prioritized for vaccination until further vaccines are available.
(1) 背景：目前奥地利的新冠疫苗供应有限。我们旨在为当局提供循证指导，以尽量减少奥地利与新冠相关的住院和死亡情况。(2) 方法：我们使用基于主体的动态人群模型，比较针对老年人（≥65岁）、中年人（45 - 64岁）、年轻人（15 - 44岁）、弱势群体（因合并症有重症风险）和医护人员的不同疫苗接种策略。首先，针对最初可供20万人使用的一批疫苗优化接种结果。其次，进行逐步优化，得出245万人的优先接种顺序，与不接种疫苗相比，最大程度减少总住院人数和死亡人数。我们考虑了有和没有免疫清除作用的免疫效果，假设有效性为70%。(3) 结果：通过先为老年人和弱势群体接种疫苗，然后依次为中年人、医护人员和年轻人接种，实现了住院人数和死亡人数的最大程度减少。对245万人进行疫苗接种的优化得出了相同的优先顺序，避免了约三分之一的死亡和住院情况。先为医护人员接种疫苗导致的减少幅度略小，但能最大程度保障职业安全。(4) 结论：为尽量减少与新冠相关的住院和死亡情况，我们的研究表明，在有更多疫苗可用之前，应优先为老年人和弱势群体接种疫苗。
