Laboratorio de Entomología, Subdepartamento de Genética Molecular, Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Programa de Magíster en Ciencias mención Entomología, Universidad Metropolitana de Ciencias de la Educación, Santiago, Chile.
Front Public Health. 2021 May 11;9:611152. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.611152. eCollection 2021.
The extreme north of Chile presents a subtropical climate permissive of the establishment of potential disease vectors. (.) is distributed from the south of the United States to the north of Argentina and Chile, and is one of the main vectors of malaria in Latin America. Malaria was eradicated from Chile in 1945. Nevertheless, the vector persists in river ravines of the Arica and Tarapacá regions. The principal effect of climate change in the north of Chile is temperature increase. Precipitation prediction is not accurate for this region because records were erratic during the last century. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and the projected distribution pattern of this species in Chile, given the potential impact due to climate change. We compiled distributional data for . (.) and constructed species distribution models to predict the spatial distribution of this species using the MaxEnt algorithm with current and RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, using environmental and topographic layers. Our models estimated that the current expected range of . (.) extends continuously from Arica to the north of Antofagasta region. Furthermore, the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projected scenarios suggested that the range of distribution of may increase in longitude, latitude, and altitude limits, enhancing the local extension area by 38 and 101%, respectively, and local presence probability (>0.7), from the northern limit in Arica y Parinacota region (18°S) to the northern Antofagasta region (23°S). This study contributes to geographic and ecologic knowledge about this species in Chile, as it represents the first local study of . (.) . The information generated in this study can be used to inform decision making regarding vector control and surveillance programs of Latin America. These kinds of studies are very relevant to generate human, animal, and environmental health knowledge contributing to the "One Health" concept.
智利最北部呈现出亚热带气候，有利于潜在病媒的建立。（ ）分布范围从美国南部到阿根廷和智利北部，是拉丁美洲疟疾的主要病媒之一。智利于 1945 年消除了疟疾。然而，这种病媒仍存在于阿里卡和塔拉帕卡地区的河流峡谷中。智利北部气候变化的主要影响是温度升高。由于上个世纪的记录不稳定，该地区的降水预测并不准确。本研究的目的是估计该物种在智利的当前和预测分布模式，考虑到气候变化的潜在影响。我们收集了 （ ）的分布数据，并构建了物种分布模型，使用 MaxEnt 算法，利用当前和 RCP4.5 和 8.5 情景下的环境和地形层，预测该物种的空间分布。我们的模型估计，（ ）的当前预期范围从阿里卡向北延伸到安托法加斯塔地区。此外，RCP4.5 和 8.5 预测情景表明， 分布范围可能会在经度、纬度和海拔限制上增加，分别将当地扩展面积增加 38%和 101%，并增加当地存在概率（>0.7），从阿里卡和帕里纳科塔地区（18°S）的北部边界到北部安托法加斯塔地区（23°S）。本研究有助于增加智利对该物种的地理和生态知识，因为它代表了对 （ ）的第一次本地研究。本研究产生的信息可用于为拉丁美洲的病媒控制和监测计划提供决策依据。这些研究对于生成有助于“One Health”概念的人类、动物和环境卫生知识非常重要。
