Modeling the Potential Distribution of the Malaria Vector Theobald (Diptera: Culicidae) in Arid Regions of Northern Chile.

The extreme north of Chile presents a subtropical climate permissive of the establishment of potential disease vectors. (.) is distributed from the south of the United States to the north of Argentina and Chile, and is one of the main vectors of malaria in Latin America. Malaria was eradicated from Chile in 1945. Nevertheless, the vector persists in river ravines of the Arica and Tarapacá regions. The principal effect of climate change in the north of Chile is temperature increase. Precipitation prediction is not accurate for this region because records were erratic during the last century. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and the projected distribution pattern of this species in Chile, given the potential impact due to climate change. We compiled distributional data for . (.) and constructed species distribution models to predict the spatial distribution of this species using the MaxEnt algorithm with current and RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, using environmental and topographic layers. Our models estimated that the current expected range of . (.) extends continuously from Arica to the north of Antofagasta region. Furthermore, the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projected scenarios suggested that the range of distribution of may increase in longitude, latitude, and altitude limits, enhancing the local extension area by 38 and 101%, respectively, and local presence probability (>0.7), from the northern limit in Arica y Parinacota region (18°S) to the northern Antofagasta region (23°S). This study contributes to geographic and ecologic knowledge about this species in Chile, as it represents the first local study of . (.) . The information generated in this study can be used to inform decision making regarding vector control and surveillance programs of Latin America. These kinds of studies are very relevant to generate human, animal, and environmental health knowledge contributing to the "One Health" concept.