Departamento de Física, Univ. Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil.
Hospital das Clínicas, Univ. Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2022 Jul 12;17(7):e0264293. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264293. eCollection 2022.
The COVID-19 pandemic was severely aggravated in Brazil due to its politicization by the country's federal government. However, the impact of diffuse political forces on the fatality of an epidemic is notoriously difficult to quantify. Here we introduce a method to measure this effect in the Brazilian case, based on the inhomogeneous distribution throughout the national territory of political support for the federal government. This political support is quantified by the voting rates in the last general election in Brazil. This data is correlated with the fatality rates by COVID-19 in each Brazilian state as the number of deaths grows over time. We show that the correlation between fatality rate and political support grows as the government's misinformation campaign is developed. This led to the dominance of such political factor for the pandemic impact in Brazil in 2021. Once this dominance is established, this correlation allows for an estimation of the total number of deaths due to political influence as 350±70 thousand up to the end of 2021, corresponding to (57±11)% of the total number of deaths.
由于巴西联邦政府的政治化，COVID-19 大流行在巴西严重恶化。然而，弥漫性政治力量对疫情死亡率的影响很难量化。在这里，我们介绍了一种在巴西情况下衡量这种影响的方法，该方法基于对联邦政府政治支持在全国范围内的不均匀分布。这种政治支持通过巴西上次大选中的投票率来量化。随着时间的推移，随着 COVID-19 死亡人数的增加，该数据与巴西各州的死亡率相关联。我们表明，死亡率与政治支持之间的相关性随着政府的错误信息运动的发展而增加。这导致了 2021 年巴西疫情影响中这种政治因素的主导地位。一旦这种主导地位确立，这种相关性就可以估计由于政治影响而导致的总死亡人数为 35 万至 70 万，占总死亡人数的（57±11）%。
