School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
School of Nursing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Int J Public Health. 2023 Jan 16;68:1605502. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2023.1605502. eCollection 2023.
This study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal patterns of the global burden caused by main NCDs along the socio-economic development. We extracted relevant data from GBD 2019. The estimated annual percentage changes, quantile regression and limited cubic splines were adopted to estimate temporal trends and relationships with socio-demographic index. NCDs accounted for 74.36% of global all-cause deaths in 2019. The main NCDs diseases were estimated for cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and chronic respiratory diseases, with deaths of 18.56 (17.08-19.72) million, 10.08 (9.41-10.66) million and 3.97 (3.58-4.30) million, respectively. The death burden of three diseases gradually decreased globally over time. Regional and sex variations existed worldwide. Besides, the death burden of CVD showed the inverted U-shaped associations with SDI, while neoplasms were positively correlated with SDI, and CRD showed the negative association. NCDs remain a crucial public health issue worldwide, though several favorable trends of CVD, neoplasms and CRD were observed. Regional and sex disparities still existed. Public health managers should execute more targeted programs to lessen NCDs burden, predominantly among lower SDI countries.
本研究旨在分析主要非传染性疾病(NCDs)在社会经济发展过程中的全球负担的时空模式。我们从 GBD 2019 中提取了相关数据。采用估计年度百分比变化、分位数回归和有限立方样条来估计时间趋势和与社会人口指数的关系。2019 年,NCDs 占全球所有死因的 74.36%。主要的 NCD 疾病估计为心血管疾病、肿瘤和慢性呼吸系统疾病,死亡人数分别为 1856 万(17.08-19.72 万)、1008 万(9.41-10.66 万)和 397 万(3.58-4.30 万)。这三种疾病的死亡负担在全球范围内随时间逐渐下降。全球范围内存在区域和性别差异。此外,心血管疾病的死亡负担与 SDI 呈倒 U 型关系,而肿瘤与 SDI 呈正相关,慢性呼吸系统疾病呈负相关。尽管观察到心血管疾病、肿瘤和慢性呼吸系统疾病的一些有利趋势,但 NCDs 仍然是全球一个重要的公共卫生问题。区域和性别差异仍然存在。公共卫生管理者应执行更有针对性的计划,以减轻 NCDs 的负担,主要是在社会人口指数较低的国家。