在过去、现在和未来全球、区域和国家 2 型糖尿病的负担：对 2019 年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析。

The global, regional and national burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the past, present and future: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

机构信息

Department of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China.

Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China.

出版信息

Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2023 Jul 14;14:1192629. doi: 10.3389/fendo.2023.1192629. eCollection 2023.

AIM

To report the global, regional, and national burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in 2019, assess its trends in the past, and forecast its trends in the future.

METHODS

The main data source was the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. We assessed the changes in T2DM burden from 1990 to 2019 with joinpoint regression analysis. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to forecast the T2DM incidence and mortality rate from 2020 to 2034.

RESULTS

The burden of T2DM has increased from 1990 to 2019 generally. The low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region had the highest increase in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) due to T2DM. Nationally, the increase in ASIR (r=0.151, p=0.046) and the decrease in ASMR (r=0.355, p<0.001) were positively correlated with SDIs. In 2019, the global ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR due to T2DM were 259.9 (95% UI 240.3-281.4), 5282.9 (95% UI 4853.6-5752.1), 18.5 (95% UI 17.2-19.7), and 801.5 (95% UI 55477000-79005200) per 100,000 population, respectively. Additionally, the ASIR (r=0.153, p=0.030) and ASPR (r=0.159, p=0.024) of T2DM were positively correlated with SDIs, while ASMR (r=-0.226, p=0.001) and ASDR (r=-0.171, p=0.015) due to T2DM were negatively correlated with SDIs. The ASIR was estimated to increase to 284.42, and ASMR was estimated to increase to 19.1 from 2030 to 2034, per 100,000 population.

CONCLUSION

Globally, the burden of T2DM has increased in the past and was forecast to continue increasing. Greater investment in T2DM prevention is needed.

目的

报告 2019 年全球、区域和国家 2 型糖尿病（T2DM）负担，评估过去的变化趋势，并预测未来的变化趋势。

方法

主要数据来源是全球疾病负担 2019 数据库。我们使用 Joinpoint 回归分析评估了 1990 年至 2019 年 T2DM 负担的变化情况。年龄-时期-队列分析用于预测 2020 年至 2034 年 T2DM 的发病率和死亡率。

结果

T2DM 的负担总体上从 1990 年增加到 2019 年。中低收入社会人口指数（SDI）地区因 T2DM 导致的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年（ASDR）增幅最大。在全国范围内，ASIR 的增加（r=0.151，p=0.046）和 ASMR 的下降（r=0.355，p<0.001）与 SDI 呈正相关。2019 年，全球 T2DM 的 ASIR、ASPR、ASMR 和 ASDR 分别为 259.9（95%UI 240.3-281.4）、5282.9（95%UI 4853.6-5752.1）、18.5（95%UI 17.2-19.7）和 801.5（95%UI 55477000-79005200）/100000 人。此外，T2DM 的 ASIR（r=0.153，p=0.030）和 ASPR（r=0.159，p=0.024）与 SDI 呈正相关，而 T2DM 的 ASMR（r=-0.226，p=0.001）和 ASDR（r=-0.171，p=0.015）与 SDI 呈负相关。预计到 2030 年至 2034 年，每 100000 人 T2DM 的 ASIR 将增加到 284.42，ASMR 将增加到 19.1。