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Predicting sepsis using deep learning across international sites: a retrospective development and validation study.

作者信息

Moor Michael, Bennett Nicolas, Plečko Drago, Horn Max, Rieck Bastian, Meinshausen Nicolai, Bühlmann Peter, Borgwardt Karsten

机构信息

Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Basel 4058, Switzerland.

SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Switzerland.

出版信息

EClinicalMedicine. 2023 Aug 11;62:102124. doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102124. eCollection 2023 Aug.


DOI:10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102124
PMID:37588623
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10425671/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: When sepsis is detected, organ damage may have progressed to irreversible stages, leading to poor prognosis. The use of machine learning for predicting sepsis early has shown promise, however international validations are missing. METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational, multi-centre cohort study. We developed and externally validated a deep learning system for the prediction of sepsis in the intensive care unit (ICU). Our analysis represents the first international, multi-centre in-ICU cohort study for sepsis prediction using deep learning to our knowledge. Our dataset contains 136,478 unique ICU admissions, representing a refined and harmonised subset of four large ICU databases comprising data collected from ICUs in the US, the Netherlands, and Switzerland between 2001 and 2016. Using the international consensus definition Sepsis-3, we derived hourly-resolved sepsis annotations, amounting to 25,694 (18.8%) patient stays with sepsis. We compared our approach to clinical baselines as well as machine learning baselines and performed an extensive internal and external statistical validation within and across databases, reporting area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC). FINDINGS: Averaged over sites, our model was able to predict sepsis with an AUC of 0.846 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.841-0.852) on a held-out validation cohort internal to each site, and an AUC of 0.761 (95% CI, 0.746-0.770) when validating externally across sites. Given access to a small fine-tuning set (10% per site), the transfer to target sites was improved to an AUC of 0.807 (95% CI, 0.801-0.813). Our model raised 1.4 false alerts per true alert and detected 80% of the septic patients 3.7 h (95% CI, 3.0-4.3) prior to the onset of sepsis, opening a vital window for intervention. INTERPRETATION: By monitoring clinical and laboratory measurements in a retrospective simulation of a real-time prediction scenario, a deep learning system for the detection of sepsis generalised to previously unseen ICU cohorts, internationally. FUNDING: This study was funded by the Personalized Health and Related Technologies (PHRT) strategic focus area of the ETH domain.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/b45863c7d9c7/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/4b6351f3e4a2/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/67c4005fb6f2/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/681901fcb556/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/e3ee9a140d64/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/b45863c7d9c7/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/4b6351f3e4a2/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/67c4005fb6f2/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/681901fcb556/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/e3ee9a140d64/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1b7/10425671/b45863c7d9c7/gr5.jpg

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Predicting sepsis using deep learning across international sites: a retrospective development and validation study.

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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
Multicenter validation of a machine learning model to predict intensive care unit readmission within 48 hours after discharge.

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本文引用的文献

[1]
ricu: R's interface to intensive care data.

Gigascience. 2022-12-28

[2]
Multicenter validation of a deep-learning-based pediatric early-warning system for prediction of deterioration events.

Acute Crit Care. 2022-11

[3]
Prospective, multi-site study of patient outcomes after implementation of the TREWS machine learning-based early warning system for sepsis.

Nat Med. 2022-7

[4]
Federated learning for predicting clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

Nat Med. 2021-10

[5]
Artificial intelligence sepsis prediction algorithm learns to say "I don't know".

NPJ Digit Med. 2021-9-9

[6]
External Validation of a Widely Implemented Proprietary Sepsis Prediction Model in Hospitalized Patients.

JAMA Intern Med. 2021-8-1

[7]
The Epic Sepsis Model Falls Short-The Importance of External Validation.

JAMA Intern Med. 2021-8-1

[8]
Early Prediction of Sepsis in the ICU Using Machine Learning: A Systematic Review.

Front Med (Lausanne). 2021-5-28

[9]
Sharing ICU Patient Data Responsibly Under the Society of Critical Care Medicine/European Society of Intensive Care Medicine Joint Data Science Collaboration: The Amsterdam University Medical Centers Database (AmsterdamUMCdb) Example.

Crit Care Med. 2021-6-1

[10]
Predicting Progression to Septic Shock in the Emergency Department Using an Externally Generalizable Machine-Learning Algorithm.

Ann Emerg Med. 2021-4

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