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Meta分析中误读和滥用“发表偏倚”的风险:基于漏斗图方法的教育综述

The Perils of Misinterpreting and Misusing "Publication Bias" in Meta-analyses: An Education Review on Funnel Plot-Based Methods.

作者信息

Afonso José, Ramirez-Campillo Rodrigo, Clemente Filipe Manuel, Büttner Fionn Cléirigh, Andrade Renato

机构信息

Faculty of Sport, Centre of Research, Education, Innovation, and Intervention in Sport (CIFI2D), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.

Exercise and Rehabilitation Sciences Institute, Faculty of Rehabilitation Sciences, School of Physical Therapy, Universidad Andres Bello, Santiago, Chile.

出版信息

Sports Med. 2024 Feb;54(2):257-269. doi: 10.1007/s40279-023-01927-9. Epub 2023 Sep 8.

Abstract

Publication bias refers to a systematic deviation from the truth in the results of a meta-analysis due to the higher likelihood for published studies to be included in meta-analyses than unpublished studies. Publication bias can lead to misleading recommendations for decision and policy making. In this education review, we introduce, explain, and provide solutions to the pervasive misuses and misinterpretations of publication bias that afflict evidence syntheses in sport and exercise medicine, with a focus on the commonly used funnel-plot based methods. Publication bias is more routinely assessed by visually inspecting funnel plot asymmetry, although it has been consistently deemed unreliable, leading to the development of statistical tests to assess publication bias. However, most statistical tests of publication bias (i) cannot rule out alternative explanations for funnel plot asymmetry (e.g., between-study heterogeneity, choice of metric, chance) and (ii) are grossly underpowered, even when using an arbitrary minimum threshold of ten or more studies. We performed a cross-sectional meta-research investigation of how publication bias was assessed in systematic reviews with meta-analyses published in the top two sport and exercise medicine journals throughout 2021. This analysis highlights that publication bias is frequently misused and misinterpreted, even in top tier journals. Because of conceptual and methodological problems when assessing and interpreting publication bias, preventive strategies (e.g., pre-registration, registered reports, disclosing protocol deviations, and reporting all study findings regardless of direction or magnitude) offer the best and most efficient solution to mitigate the misuse and misinterpretation of publication bias. Because true publication bias is very difficult to determine, we recommend that future publications use the term "risk of publication bias".

摘要

发表偏倚是指由于已发表研究比未发表研究更有可能被纳入荟萃分析,从而导致荟萃分析结果出现系统偏离真实情况的现象。发表偏倚可能会导致决策和政策制定方面产生误导性建议。在本教育综述中,我们介绍、解释并提供解决办法,以应对在体育和运动医学证据综合过程中普遍存在的对发表偏倚的滥用和误解问题,重点关注常用的基于漏斗图的方法。发表偏倚通常通过直观检查漏斗图的不对称性来评估,尽管一直以来都认为这种方法不可靠,这促使人们开发统计检验方法来评估发表偏倚。然而,大多数发表偏倚的统计检验(i)无法排除漏斗图不对称的其他解释(例如,研究间异质性、指标选择、偶然性),并且(ii)功效严重不足,即使使用十项或更多研究的任意最低阈值也是如此。我们对2021年在两大顶级体育和运动医学期刊上发表的带有荟萃分析的系统评价中如何评估发表偏倚进行了横断面元研究调查。该分析强调,即使在顶级期刊中,发表偏倚也经常被滥用和误解。由于在评估和解释发表偏倚时存在概念和方法上的问题,预防策略(例如,预注册、注册报告、披露方案偏差以及报告所有研究结果,无论其方向或大小)为减轻发表偏倚的滥用和误解提供了最佳且最有效的解决方案。由于真正的发表偏倚很难确定,我们建议未来的出版物使用“发表偏倚风险”这一术语。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/846c/10933152/ac1bcaed9330/40279_2023_1927_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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