Tuergan Talaiti, Abulaiti Aimitaji, Tulahong Alimu, Zhang Ruiqing, Shao Yingmei, Aji Tuerganaili
Hepatobiliary and Echinococcosis Surgery Department, Digestive and Vascular Surgery Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University.
State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Management of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Xinjiang Medical University.
Environ Health Prev Med. 2025;30:54. doi: 10.1265/ehpm.25-00038.
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria pose a major health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
Initially, we performed a descriptive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, categorizing data by subtypes. Next, linear regression models were employed to analyze temporal trends. We then utilized four predictive models to forecast the future burden. Additionally, we explored the relationship between estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs), as well as Human Development Index (HDI) scores for 2021. Furthermore, decomposition analysis was applied to assess the influence of aging, population dynamics, and epidemiological changes. Lastly, frontier analysis was conducted to examine the connection between disease burden and sociodemographic development.
In 2021, NTDs and malaria contributed significantly to the global disease burden, with considerable disparities across genders, age groups, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, GBD regions, and individual countries. From 1990 to 2021, both the number of cases and the associated ASRs have shown a recent downward trend. The EAPCs are positively correlated with ASRs and HDI scores. Projections indicate a continued decline in disease burden through 2046. Additionally, our decomposition analysis highlighted the positive impact of aging and epidemiological shifts on the reduction of the disease burden. Finally, frontier analysis revealed that countries and regions with higher SDI scores have greater potential for further reducing their health burden.
While the global burden of NTDs and malaria has improved overall, significant disparities remain across regions and countries. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing targeted intervention strategies and maintaining sustained investments to tackle the ongoing challenges.
被忽视的热带病（NTDs）和疟疾构成了重大的健康挑战，尤其是在低收入和中等收入国家。
最初，我们对《2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）》数据库进行了描述性分析，按亚型对数据进行分类。接下来，采用线性回归模型分析时间趋势。然后，我们使用四种预测模型来预测未来的负担。此外，我们探讨了估计年百分比变化（EAPCs）与年龄标准化率（ASRs）之间的关系，以及2021年的人类发展指数（HDI）得分。此外，应用分解分析来评估老龄化、人口动态和流行病学变化的影响。最后，进行前沿分析以检验疾病负担与社会人口发展之间的联系。
2021年，NTDs和疟疾对全球疾病负担有重大贡献，在性别、年龄组、社会人口指数（SDI）区域、GBD区域和各个国家之间存在相当大的差异。从1990年到2021年，病例数和相关的ASRs最近都呈下降趋势。EAPCs与ASRs和HDI得分呈正相关。预测表明，到2046年疾病负担将持续下降。此外，我们的分解分析突出了老龄化和流行病学转变对减轻疾病负担的积极影响。最后，前沿分析表明，SDI得分较高的国家和地区在进一步减轻其健康负担方面具有更大潜力。
虽然NTDs和疟疾的全球负担总体上有所改善，但各地区和国家之间仍存在显著差异。我们的研究结果强调了实施有针对性的干预策略和维持持续投资以应对持续挑战的重要性。
