Parkes H G, Veys C A, Waterhouse J A, Peters A
Br J Ind Med. 1982 Aug;39(3):209-20. doi: 10.1136/oem.39.3.209.
Although it is over 30 years since an excess of bladder cancer was first identified in British rubber workers, the fear has persisted that this hazard could still be affecting men working in the industry today. Furthermore, suspicions have also arisen that other and hitherto unsuspected excesses of cancer might be occurring. For these reasons 33 815 men, who first started work in the industry between 1 January 1946 and 31 December 1960, have been followed up to 31 December 1975 to ascertain the number of deaths attributable to malignant disease and to compare these with the expected number calculated from the published mortality rates applicable to the male population of England and Wales and Scotland. The findings confirm the absence of any excess mortality from bladder cancer among men entering the industry after 1 January 1951 (the presumed bladder carcinogens were withdrawn from production processes in July 1949), but they confirm also a statistically significant excess of both lung and stomach cancer mortality. A small excess of oesophageal cancer was also observed in both the tyre and general rubber goods manufacturing sectors. American reports of an excess of leukaemia among rubber workers receive only limited support from the present study, where a small numerical excess of deaths from leukaemia is not statistically significant. A special feature of the study is the adoption of an analytical method that permits taking into account the long latent period of induction of occupational cancer.
尽管英国橡胶工人首次被发现膀胱癌发病率过高已过去30多年,但人们一直担心这种危害仍可能影响如今从事该行业的男性。此外,人们还怀疑可能存在其他迄今未被怀疑的癌症发病率过高的情况。出于这些原因,对1946年1月1日至1960年12月31日期间首次进入该行业的33815名男性进行了随访,直至1975年12月31日,以确定恶性疾病导致的死亡人数,并将这些人数与根据适用于英格兰和威尔士以及苏格兰男性人口的公布死亡率计算出的预期人数进行比较。研究结果证实,1951年1月1日之后进入该行业的男性中不存在膀胱癌导致的任何超额死亡率(据推测,膀胱致癌物于1949年7月从生产过程中撤出),但也证实肺癌和胃癌死亡率在统计学上有显著的超额。在轮胎和一般橡胶制品制造部门还观察到食管癌有少量超额。美国关于橡胶工人白血病发病率过高的报告在本研究中仅得到有限支持,本研究中白血病死亡人数少量超额在统计学上并不显著。该研究的一个特点是采用了一种分析方法,该方法能够考虑到职业性癌症诱发的长潜伏期。