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曼氏血吸虫病传播动力学与控制的年龄结构模型的建立及其验证

The development of an age structured model for schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and control and its validation for Schistosoma mansoni.

作者信息

Chan M S, Guyatt H L, Bundy D A, Booth M, Fulford A J, Medley G F

机构信息

Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK.

出版信息

Epidemiol Infect. 1995 Oct;115(2):325-44. doi: 10.1017/s0950268800058453.

DOI:10.1017/s0950268800058453
PMID:7589272
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2271402/
Abstract

Mathematical models are potentially useful tools to aid in the design of control programmes for parasitic diseases. In this paper, a fully age structured epidemiological model of human schistosomiasis is developed and parameterized, and used to predict trends in infection prevalence, intensity and prevalence of heavy infections over age and time during several rounds of mass and age targeted treatment. The model is validated against data from a Schistosoma mansoni control programme in Kenya.

摘要

数学模型可能是有助于设计寄生虫病控制规划的有用工具。本文建立了一个关于人类血吸虫病的完全按年龄分层的流行病学模型，并对其进行了参数化处理，用于预测在几轮群体治疗和按年龄靶向治疗期间，感染率、感染强度以及重度感染率随年龄和时间的变化趋势。该模型依据肯尼亚曼氏血吸虫病控制规划的数据进行了验证。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3e84/2271402/6f451ddc7c50/epidinfect00053-0116-a.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3e84/2271402/6f451ddc7c50/epidinfect00053-0116-a.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3e84/2271402/6f451ddc7c50/epidinfect00053-0116-a.jpg

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