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Travel Med Infect Dis. 2012 Jan;10(1):32-42. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2011.12.003. Epub 2012 Jan 14.
Epidemics of novel or re-emerging infectious diseases have quickly spread globally via air travel, as highlighted by pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009 (pH1N1). Federal, state, and local public health responders must be able to plan for and respond to these events at aviation points of entry. The emergence of a novel influenza virus and its spread to the United States were simulated for February 2009 from 55 international metropolitan areas using three basic reproduction numbers (R(0)): 1.53, 1.70, and 1.90. Empirical data from the pH1N1 virus were used to validate our SEIR model. Time to entry to the U.S. during the early stages of a prototypical novel communicable disease was predicted based on the aviation network patterns and the epidemiology of the disease. For example, approximately 96% of origins (R(0) of 1.53) propagated a disease into the U.S. in under 75 days, 90% of these origins propagated a disease in under 50 days. An R(0) of 1.53 reproduced the pH1NI observations. The ability to anticipate the rate and location of disease introduction into the U.S. provides greater opportunity to plan responses based on the scenario as it is unfolding. This simulation tool can aid public health officials to assess risk and leverage resources efficiently.
新型或重现传染病的流行通过航空旅行迅速在全球范围内传播，2009 年的甲型 H1N1 流感（pH1N1）就是一个突出的例子。联邦、州和地方公共卫生应对人员必须能够规划和应对航空入境点的这些事件。我们使用三个基本繁殖数（R(0)）：1.53、1.70 和 1.90，对 2009 年 2 月从 55 个国际大都市出现的新型流感病毒及其在美国的传播进行了模拟。pH1N1 病毒的经验数据用于验证我们的 SEIR 模型。根据航空网络模式和疾病的流行病学，预测在原型新型传染病的早期阶段进入美国的时间。例如，大约 96%的起源地（R(0)为 1.53）在不到 75 天的时间内将疾病传播到美国，其中 90%的起源地在不到 50 天的时间内传播了疾病。R(0)为 1.53 再现了 pH1NI 的观察结果。预测疾病传入美国的速度和地点的能力为根据情景展开提供了更好的机会来规划应对措施。该模拟工具可以帮助公共卫生官员评估风险并有效地利用资源。
