Chi Guangqing, Ho Hung Chak
Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Population Research Institute, and Social Science Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, 112E Armsby, University Park, PA 16802, U.S.A. Telephone: +1 814 865 5553.
Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Land use policy. 2018 Jan;70:128-137. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.10.008.
The past century has witnessed rapidly increasing population-land conflicts due to exponential population growth and its many consequences. Although the measures of population-land conflicts are many, there lacks a model that appropriately considers both the social and physical contexts of population-land conflicts. In this study we introduce the concept of , which identifies areas with populations growing faster than the lands available for sustainable development. Specifically, population stress areas are identified by comparing population growth and land development as measured by land developability in the contiguous United States from 2001 to 2011. Our approach is based on a combination of spatial multicriteria analysis, zonal statistics, and spatiotemporal modeling. We found that the population growth of a county is associated with the decrease of land developability, along with the spatial influences of surrounding counties. The Midwest and the traditional "Deep South" counties would have less population stress with future land development, whereas the Southeast Coast, Washington State, Northern Texas, and the Southwest would face more stress due to population growth that is faster than the loss of suitable lands for development. The factors contributing to population stress may differ from place to place. Our population stress concept is useful and innovative for understanding population stress due to land development and can be applied to other regions as well as global research. It can act as a basis towards developing coherent sustainable land use policies. Coordination among local governments and across different levels of governments in the twenty-first century is a must for effective land use planning.
过去一个世纪，由于人口呈指数增长及其带来的诸多后果，人口与土地的冲突迅速增加。虽然衡量人口与土地冲突的方法有很多，但缺乏一个能恰当兼顾人口与土地冲突的社会和自然环境的模型。在本研究中，我们引入了“人口压力区”的概念，该概念用于识别那些人口增长速度超过可持续发展可用土地增长速度的地区。具体而言，通过比较2001年至2011年美国本土人口增长和以土地可开发性衡量的土地开发情况来确定人口压力区。我们的方法基于空间多标准分析、区域统计和时空建模的结合。我们发现，一个县的人口增长与土地可开发性的下降相关，同时也受到周边县的空间影响。中西部和传统的“深南地区”的县在未来土地开发时人口压力会较小，而东南海岸、华盛顿州、得克萨斯州北部和西南部由于人口增长速度超过了适宜开发土地的减少速度，将面临更大的压力。导致人口压力的因素可能因地区而异。我们的人口压力概念对于理解土地开发造成的人口压力是有用且创新的，并且可以应用于其他地区以及全球研究。它可以作为制定连贯的可持续土地利用政策的基础。在21世纪，地方政府之间以及不同层级政府之间的协调对于有效的土地利用规划至关重要。
