Using Machine Learning to Predict Dementia from Neuropsychiatric Symptom and Neuroimaging Data.

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) is a promising technique for patient-specific prediction of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia development. Neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) might improve the accuracy of ML models but have barely been used for this purpose.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate if baseline mild behavioral impairment (MBI) status used for NPS quantification along with brain morphology features are predictive of follow-up diagnosis, median 40 months later in patients with normal cognition (NC) or MCI.

METHOD

Baseline neuroimaging, neuropsychiatric, and clinical data from 102 individuals with NC and 239 with MCI were extracted from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database. Neuropsychiatric inventory questionnaire items were transformed to MBI domains using a published algorithm. Diagnosis at latest follow-up was used as the outcome variable and ground truth classification. A logistic model tree classifier combined with information gain feature selection was trained to predict follow-up diagnosis.

RESULTS

In the binary classification (NC versus MCI/AD), the optimal ML model required only two features from over 200, MBI total score and left hippocampal volume. These features correctly classified participants as remaining normal or developing cognitive impairment with 84.4% accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [ROC-AUC] = 0.86). Seven features were selected for the three-class model (NC versus MCI versus dementia) achieving an accuracy of 58.8% (ROC-AUC=0.73).

CONCLUSION

Baseline NPS, categorized for MBI domain and duration, have prognostic utility in addition to brain morphology measures for predicting diagnosis change using ML. MBI total score, followed by impulse dyscontrol and affective dysregulation were most predictive of future diagnosis.