Zhanjiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou, China.
Cheng Shiu University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Inquiry. 2024 Jan-Dec;61:469580241266402. doi: 10.1177/00469580241266402.
Supply chain disruptions caused by major public health crises will severely impact the economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the above proposition, taking the strict lockdown policy and supply chain disruption in Hubei Province at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic as a case, to provide decision-making reference for the government in supply chain management under major public health crisis. To achieve this goal, this paper firstly measures the supply chain network of Hubei province via the multi-region and multi-sector value-added model; then empirically studies the impact of lockdown policy and supply chain disruption on provincial economic growth, with the monthly data of 31 provinces covering January 2018 to December 2022, by the Difference in Difference method. The results show that: the lockdown policy and supply chain disruption under the Covid-19 epidemic negatively affected provincial economic growth; moreover, supply chain disruptions make provinces closer to Hubei more vulnerable to economic shocks. The results are significant in the placebo test, and are further supported in the robustness test of alternative variables and data. We further discussed the Business Cycle Co-movement between Hubei and other provinces, and the probable impact mechanism of supply chain interruption on economic growth in the Covid-19 epidemic. This study shows that supply chain network plays an important role in the transmission of interregional economic shocks, as well as its importance for economic growth, especially in major public health crises.
重大公共卫生危机导致的供应链中断将严重影响经济增长。本文的主要目的是以 COVID-19 疫情初期湖北省严格的封锁政策和供应链中断为例，检验这一命题，为政府在重大公共卫生危机下的供应链管理提供决策参考。为实现这一目标，本文首先利用多区域多部门增值模型测度了湖北省的供应链网络；然后，利用 2018 年 1 月至 2022 年 12 月的 31 个省份的月度数据，采用双重差分法实证研究了封锁政策和供应链中断对省级经济增长的影响。结果表明：新冠疫情下的封锁政策和供应链中断对省级经济增长产生了负面影响；此外，供应链中断使得与湖北距离更近的省份更容易受到经济冲击的影响。在安慰剂检验中，结果是显著的，在替代变量和数据的稳健性检验中也得到了进一步支持。我们进一步讨论了湖北与其他省份之间的商业周期协同性，以及供应链中断对新冠疫情中经济增长的可能影响机制。本研究表明，供应链网络在区域间经济冲击的传递中起着重要作用，以及其在经济增长中的重要性，特别是在重大公共卫生危机期间。
