Liu Juan, Sun Haolin, Zheng Xixi, Ma Nina, Liu Xiaoling, Cao Ruizhen, Yang Mudan, Cao Bangwei
Cancer Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, 100050, Beijing, China.
Department of Special Needs Medicine, Shanxi Province Cancer Hospital/ Shanxi Hospital Affiliated to Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Cancer Hospital Affiliated to, Shanxi Medical University, No.3 of Zhigong Xincun Street, Xinghualing District, 030013, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China.
Aging Clin Exp Res. 2025 Jul 22;37(1):228. doi: 10.1007/s40520-025-03129-x.
This study examines the global burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) attributable to diet low in milk among middle-aged and elderly populations from 1990 to 2021 and projects future trends to 2050.
Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were obtained via the Global Health Data Exchange. The burden was assessed using number of cases and rates of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) and death, stratified by age, sex, region, nation, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Temporal trends were analyzed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and future trends were projected using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.
In 2021, the global DALY and death cases of CRC attributable to a diet low in milk among middle-aged and elderly populations was 2.71 million and 0.14 million, respectively, representing increases of 92.81% and 103.02% from 1990. However, the corresponding DALY and death rates decreased from 209.65 to 182.64 per 100,000 population and from 9.96 to 9.13 per 100,000 population, respectively, with EAPCs of - 0.54 and - 0.36. The DALY and death rates rise with age, peaking in the 95 + age group. From 1990 to 2021, among regions, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe saw the largest increases in these rates, while Australasia, High-income North America, and Western Europe had the largest decreases. At the national level, Lesotho, Cabo Verde, and Georgia saw the largest increases in the DALY and death rates, while Austria, Australia, and Germany experienced the largest decreases. The correlation analysis showed that the DALY and death rates across 21 regions increased with rising SDI levels up to approximately 0.67, then declined and stabilized. Projections suggest a significant rise in DALY and death cases, with a slight increase in DALY and death rates.
The burden of CRC attributable to a diet low in milk remains substantial among middle-aged and elderly populations globally, with significant age, sex, regional and national disparities. These findings highlight the need for targeted dietary interventions to mitigate the growing burden of CRC among middle-aged and elderly populations.
本研究调查了1990年至2021年中老年人群中因牛奶摄入量低的饮食导致的结直肠癌（CRC）全球负担，并预测了到2050年的未来趋势。
通过全球卫生数据交换平台获取了《2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）》研究的数据。使用病例数、伤残调整生命年（DALY）率和死亡率评估负担，按年龄、性别、地区、国家和社会人口指数（SDI）分层。使用估计年百分比变化（EAPC）分析时间趋势，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来趋势。
2021年，中老年人群中因牛奶摄入量低的饮食导致的全球CRC的DALY和死亡病例分别为271万和14万，与1990年相比分别增加了92.81%和103.02%。然而，相应的DALY率和死亡率分别从每10万人209.65降至182.64，以及从每10万人9.96降至9.13，EAPC分别为-0.54和-0.36。DALY率和死亡率随年龄增长而上升，在95岁及以上年龄组达到峰值。1990年至2021年期间，在各地区中，撒哈拉以南非洲南部和东欧的这些比率增幅最大，而澳大拉西亚、高收入北美和西欧的降幅最大。在国家层面，莱索托、佛得角和格鲁吉亚的DALY率和死亡率增幅最大，而奥地利、澳大利亚和德国的降幅最大。相关分析表明，21个地区的DALY率和死亡率随着SDI水平的上升而增加，直至约0.67，然后下降并趋于稳定。预测表明DALY和死亡病例将显著增加，DALY率和死亡率略有上升。
在全球中老年人群中，因牛奶摄入量低的饮食导致的CRC负担仍然很大，在年龄、性别、地区和国家方面存在显著差异。这些发现凸显了有针对性的饮食干预措施对于减轻中老年人群中不断增加的CRC负担的必要性。
