Donnelly C, Leisenring W, Kanki P, Awerbuch T, Sandberg S
Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115.
Bull Math Biol. 1993;55(4):731-43. doi: 10.1007/BF02460671.
To explore the biological similarities and differences between the HIV-1 and HIV-2 viruses, we model the probability of male-to-female transmission of either HIV virus as a function of the number of sexual partners, the prevalence of the viruses and the infectivity per contact. Using maximum likelihood estimation theory and data from a prospective study of registered female prostitutes in Dakar, Senegal, we estimate and compare the infectivities of HIV-1 and HIV-2. Graphical goodness-of-fit methods are used to show that our model fits the data well. We find that in male-to-female transmission HIV-1 is significantly more infectious than HIV-2. This finding is consistent with other data from laboratory and epidemiologic studies comparing the biology of HIV-1 and HIV-2.
