Department of Mathematics, Wilfrid Laurier University Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3C5, Canada.
Math Biosci. 2013 Nov;246(1):164-75. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2013.08.014. Epub 2013 Sep 7.
This article investigates an epidemic spreading among several locations through a transportation system, with a hub connecting these locations. Public transportation is not only a bridge through which infections travel from one location to another but also a place where infections occur since individuals are typically in close proximity to each other due to the limited space in these systems. A mathematical model is constructed to study the spread of an infectious disease through such systems. A variant of the next generation method is proposed and used to provide upper and lower bounds of the basic reproduction number for the model. Our investigation indicates that increasing transportation efficiency, and improving sanitation and ventilation of the public transportation system decrease the chance of an outbreak occurring. Moreover, discouraging unnecessary travel during an epidemic also decreases the chance of an outbreak. However, reducing travel by infectives while allowing susceptibles to travel may not be enough to avoid an outbreak.
本文研究了通过一个连接多个地点的交通系统传播的传染病，公共交通不仅是感染从一个地点传播到另一个地点的桥梁，也是感染发生的地方，因为由于这些系统的空间有限，个体通常彼此靠近。构建了一个数学模型来研究通过这种系统传播的传染病。提出并使用了下一代方法的变体来为模型提供基本繁殖数的上下界。我们的调查表明，提高交通效率，改善公共交通系统的卫生和通风条件，降低了爆发的可能性。此外，在疫情期间劝阻不必要的旅行也降低了爆发的可能性。然而，减少感染者的旅行而允许易感染者旅行可能不足以避免爆发。
