Iwata Kentaro, Miyakoshi Chisato
Division of Infectious Diseases, Kobe University Hospital, Kobe 650-0017, Japan.
Department of Research Support, Center for Clinical Research and Innovation, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Kobe 650-0047, Japan.
J Clin Med. 2020 Mar 30;9(4):944. doi: 10.3390/jcm9040944.
Ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and the number of new patients continues to increase. Even though it began to spread to many other parts of the world, such as other Asian countries, the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East, the impact of secondary outbreaks caused by exported cases outside China remains unclear. We conducted simulations to estimate the impact of potential secondary outbreaks in a community outside China. Simulations using stochastic SEIR model were conducted, assuming one patient was imported to a community. Among 45 possible scenarios we prepared, the worst scenario resulted in the total number of persons recovered or removed to be 997 (95% CrI 990-1000) at day 100 and a maximum number of symptomatic infectious patients per day of 335 (95% CrI 232-478). Calculated mean basic reproductive number (R) was 6.5 (Interquartile range, IQR 5.6-7.2). However, better case scenarios with different parameters led to no secondary cases. Altering parameters, especially time to hospital visit. could change the impact of a secondary outbreak. With these multiple scenarios with different parameters, healthcare professionals might be able to better prepare for this viral infection.
新型冠状病毒（2019 - nCoV）引发的肺炎疫情于2019年12月在中国武汉爆发，新增患者数量持续增加。尽管疫情已开始蔓延至世界其他许多地区，如其他亚洲国家、美洲、欧洲和中东地区，但中国境外输入病例导致的二次疫情影响仍不明确。我们进行了模拟，以估计中国境外一个社区潜在二次疫情的影响。假设一名患者输入到一个社区，使用随机SEIR模型进行了模拟。在我们准备的45种可能情景中，最糟糕的情景在第100天时康复或被隔离的总人数为997人（95%可信区间990 - 1000），每天出现症状的感染患者最多为335人（95%可信区间232 - 478）。计算得出的平均基本再生数（R）为6.5（四分位间距，IQR 5.6 - 7.2）。然而，具有不同参数的较好情景导致无二次病例。改变参数，尤其是就诊时间，可能会改变二次疫情的影响。通过这些具有不同参数的多种情景，医护人员或许能够更好地为这种病毒感染做好准备。
