Ferraro Paul J, Simorangkir Rhita
Carey Business School and the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, a joint department of the Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Sci Adv. 2020 Jun 12;6(24):eaaz1298. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz1298. eCollection 2020 Jun.
Solutions to poverty and ecosystem degradation are often framed as conflicting. We ask whether Indonesia's national anti-poverty program, which transfers cash to hundreds of thousands of poor households, reduced deforestation as a side benefit. Although the program has no direct link to conservation, we estimate that it reduced tree cover loss in villages by 30% (95% confidence interval, 10 to 50%). About half of the avoided losses were in primary forests, and reductions were larger when participation density was higher. The economic value of the avoided carbon emissions alone compares favorably to program implementation costs. The program's environmental impact appears to be mediated through channels widely available in developing nations: consumption smoothing, whereby cash substitutes for deforestation as a form of insurance, and consumption substitution, whereby market-purchased goods substitute for deforestation-sourced goods. The results imply that anti-poverty programs targeted at the very poor can help achieve global environmental goals under certain conditions.
解决贫困问题和生态系统退化问题的方案往往被认为是相互冲突的。我们探讨印度尼西亚的国家扶贫计划,该计划向数十万贫困家庭提供现金转移支付,是否附带产生了减少森林砍伐的效益。尽管该计划与环境保护没有直接联系,但我们估计它使村庄的树木覆盖损失减少了30%(95%置信区间为10%至50%)。避免的损失中约有一半发生在原始森林,参与密度较高时减少幅度更大。仅避免的碳排放的经济价值就与项目实施成本相当。该计划的环境影响似乎是通过发展中国家广泛存在的渠道来实现的:消费平滑,即现金替代森林砍伐作为一种保险形式;以及消费替代,即市场购买的商品替代森林砍伐来源的商品。研究结果表明,针对极端贫困人口的扶贫计划在某些条件下有助于实现全球环境目标。