Li Yongling, Wang Jiaoe, Huang Jie, Chen Zhuo
Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.
Transp Policy (Oxf). 2022 Jun;122:95-103. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.04.016. Epub 2022 Apr 29.
Assessing the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on air transportation is essential for policymakers and airlines to prevent their widespread shutdown. The panel data observed from January 20, 2020, to April 30, 2020, were used to identify the impact of COVID-19 and the relevant control measures adopted on China's domestic air transportation. Hybrid models within negative binomial models were employed to separate the temporal and spatial effects of COVID-19. Temporal effects show that the number of new confirmed cases and the control measures significantly affect the number of operated flights. Spatial effects show that the network effect of COVID-19 cases in destination cities, lockdown, and adjustment to Level I in the early stages have a negative impact on the operated flights. Adjustment to Level II or Level III both has positive temporal and spatial effects. This indicates that the control measures adopted during the early stage of the pandemic positively impact the restoration of the aviation industry and other industries in the later stage.
评估2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）对航空运输的影响，对于政策制定者和航空公司防止其广泛停摆至关重要。利用2020年1月20日至2020年4月30日观测到的面板数据，来确定COVID-19及所采取的相关控制措施对中国国内航空运输的影响。采用负二项式模型中的混合模型来区分COVID-19的时间和空间效应。时间效应表明，新增确诊病例数和控制措施对运营航班数量有显著影响。空间效应表明，目的地城市COVID-19病例的网络效应、封锁以及早期调整为一级响应，对运营航班有负面影响。调整为二级或三级响应均具有积极的时间和空间效应。这表明，疫情早期采取的控制措施对后期航空业及其他行业的恢复产生了积极影响。
